07/04/2009 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Casey McGehee finished with four hits, a double short of a cycle, and drove in five to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to an 11-2 win over the Chicago Cubs.
Mike Cameron was 2-for-3 with a three-run homer and four total RBI for the Brewers, who had lost the first two contests of this four-game set and dropped three in a row overall.
J.J. Hardy homered and finished with two of the Brewers' 14 hits, while also scoring twice.
Braden Looper (7-4) allowed two runs on six hits and three walks over six innings. Both his runs allowed came on Milton Bradley's two-run homer in the third inning.
Aside from Bradley's homer, the Cubs had only six singles and hit into three double plays, as they had a three-game win streak broken.
Chicago starter Rich Harden (5-5) surrendered seven runs on eight hits and a walk in two-plus innings, and took the loss.
The Brewers struck for five runs in the first inning, which Craig Counsell began with a single. Ryan Braun later doubled to put runners in scoring position, and after Harden intentionally walked Prince Fielder, McGehee hit a two-run single to center.
Cameron followed with a homer to left-center for a 5-0 Milwaukee lead.
Hardy's solo homer in the second made it a six-run game, and the Brewers went up 7-0 in the third. McGehee led off with a triple and scored on Cameron's double.
Bradley's two-run shot in the home third, after Derrek Lee hit a leadoff single, got the Cubs within five. Chicago did not have another hit until Mike Fontenot's single with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Brewers to take further control.
Hardy scored on a passed ball in the fourth, and McGehee followed with an RBI single to push Milwaukee's lead to 9-2. McGehee's two-run homer in the sixth made it an 11-2 game, and he had a chance to go for the cycle in the eighth, but grounded into a double play.
Game Notes
Harden allowed a season-high in earned runs and had his shortest outing of 2009...Cameron's homer was his 14th this season, while Hardy hit his ninth and McGehee belted his sixth...Bradley's HR was his sixth of the year. He also walked twice...The Cubs still lead the season series, 5-4.
<< New jockey for Mine That Bird on the horizon
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chip Woolley, trainer of Kentucky Derby
winner Mine That Bird, indicated Saturday that an announcement on a new rider
for the three-year-old could come as soon as Sunday morning. Earlier in the
week Ca
<< D'Backs activate Petit off DL for Saturday start
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks have activated
right-hander Yusmeiro Petit from the 15-day disabled list to start Saturday's
game versus Colorado.
Petit has been shelved since May 9 with a right shoulde
<< Nestor/Zimonjic beat Bryans for Wimbledon doubles crown
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canadian Daniel Nestor and Serbian Nenad
Zimonjic repeated as men's doubles champions at Wimbledon Saturday, beating
the top-seeded American twin Bryan brothers, Bob and Mike, in four sets.
Nestor and
<< Echenique birdies the last for the lead in Paris
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Overnight leader Rafa Echenique birdied the
last hole Saturday to hold on to his spot atop the leaderboard after the third
round of the Open de France.
Echenique shot a one-under 70 and finished 54 holes at
Woodward's ninth-inning hit sends M's past Sox >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Woodward knocked in the deciding run in
the ninth inning as Seattle clipped Boston, 3-2, in the middle
contest of three at Fenway Park.
Russell Branyan added a pair of RBI for the M
Callaspo and KC snap ChiSox winning streak >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alberto Callaspo went 2-for-3 and hit the
go-ahead two-run single in the sixth inning, as the Kansas City Royals came
back to top the White Sox, 6-4, and snap Chicago's seven-game win streak.
Callaspo
Mike Smith back on Mine That Bird >>
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eclipse Award winning jockey Mike Smith has
regained the mount on Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Smith has a two-
race commitment to ride the gelding starting with the West Virginia Derby on
Saturda
Wang leaves game >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang left
Saturday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays with a shoulder injury.
Wang departed in the sixth inning with a right shoulder strain, and is
scheduled to
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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